3 minute read
Four of the top six before last weekend were rolled in Round Ten, causing massive changes to the top of the table. Those four (Man City, Villa, Arsenal, Brighton) all have difficult assignments this weekend which could prove to be make or break.
Wolves v Southampton and West Ham v Everton are crucial clashes at the other end.
BRENTFORD v BOURNEMOUTH
History: Only the four meetings since Brentford's promotion, with the Bees winning two and two ending all square.
Overview: An enticing mid-table clash. Brentford had three points and an eye on a top eight spot in the bag last weekend before two stoppage time goals by Harry Wilson turned the game 180 degrees at Craven Cottage.
Bournemouth continued a stunning run of form by toppling Man City – that's seven points in three games against Arsenal, Villa, and the champions. Evanilson is fitting in well now and the south coast minnows are serious European chances on that sort of form. Very hard game to call.
Prediction: Draw at $3.60.
CRYSTAL PALACE v FULHAM
History: Barely a struck match between these sides of late. Four of the last five meetings have ended in draws, including both clashes last season.
Overview: Palace shared the spoils at Molineaux last weekend in an enthralling final 30 minutes that saw the lead fluctuate. It's been a much better fortnight for the Eagles, with back-to-back victories over Spurs and Villa (Carabao Cup) steadying the ship. At home their form is okay – only a 2-0 loss in Round 3 to West Ham could be considered poor.
Fulham scored twice after the 90th minute to snatch an unlikely win at home to Brentford last weekend. It ended a slump largely brought about by a difficult fixture list. The Cottagers have scored in every game since opening day and have the honour of being the only side to lower Forest's colours this season. Another tight one.
Prediction: Draw at $3.50.
WEST HAM v EVERTON
History: A mixed bag in the past two seasons with two wins apiece. In 23/24 it was the away team that prevailed in each game.
Overview: West Ham's woes continued when they travelled to the City Ground. Alvarez's send off didn't help but they were second best at the time and never seriously threatened Sels in goal. No game in this league is easy but if the Hammers want to get anything from this campaign they need to take three points against sides like Everton.
The Toffees made more chances but ended up with the unpleasant honour of first side to lose to Southampton in 24/25. Aside from their visit to Ipswich it has been a bleak campaign away from home. Two desperate sides in indifferent form meet in a game that might not excite.
Prediction: West Ham to win at $2.20.
WOLVES v SOUTHAMPTON
History: A fixture dominated by Wolves. In the five seasons from 18/19 to 22/23, Wolves won seven and drew two of the ten clashes.
Overview: Wolves came from behind to lead but couldn't hang on at home to Palace, leaving them without a win after ten rounds. The next seven games look okay so this is their time. The last three home fixtures prior to the Palace match were 2-1 defeats, but creditable performances against City, Liverpool, and Newcastle.
Southampton finally got the monkey off their back with a win at home over Everton, although it is fair to say the visitors should have taken something from the game. The last away game was a stoic albeit fruitless trip to the Etihad. Prior to that, the Saints were shipping goals freely on their travels.
Prediction: Wolves to win at $2.00.
BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER CITY
History: A Brighton win at home in May 2021 stands alone in 14 EPL meetings – City has won 12 including a 4-0 romp on the south coast last season.
Overview: A torrid nine days for Brighton who have faced Liverpool twice and now host the wounded champs. They led at the break at Anfield last weekend but couldn't stem the red wave in the second half. A decent performance and one that will give them some confidence against a side that is reeling at the moment.
City has had their worst week in recent memory. A first loss of the season at Bournemouth was book-ended by a Carabao Cup departure against Spurs and a 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Sporting Lisbon midweek in the Champions League. The last time they lost three on the bounce was April 2018. It's too early for panic stations but Pep needs to get them together quickly as Tottenham and Liverpool follow this clash.
Prediction: Manchester City to win at $1.75.
LIVERPOOL v ASTON VILLA
History: Since Villa stunned the Reds 7-2 in October 2020 it has been all Liverpool, with five wins to them plus two draws in the last seven.
Overview: Liverpool's season goes from strength to strength. A come-from-behind win over an in-form Brighton was parlayed midweek when they destroyed Leverkusen 4-0 in the Champions League. Slot's squad is fit and full of confidence, with few strikers going better than Diaz at present.
It's possible that twice a week pressure brought upon by Champions League football is starting to tell at Villa. Three straight losses in all competitions puts them in a precarious spot. The fact that seven of the last eight goals conceded have come in the second half may add weight to the fatigue theory. Anfield is the last place they will want to go.
Prediction: Liverpool to win at $1.45.
MANCHESTER UTD v LEICESTER
History: Man U pulled of a double without conceding against the Foxes in their last season together back in 22/23.
Overview: Two good results now for caretaker manager Ruud Van Nistelrooy, including a comprehensive 5-2 over Leicester in the Carabao Cup. The draw at home against Chelsea last weekend was a just result but still leaves them deeply rooted on the bottom half of the table. Looking ahead, Ipswich and Everton come next so this is the time for the Red Devils to make a move.
For the second time in three games a late, late goal by Jordan Ayew got the Foxes out of trouble, this time at Ipswich. Leicester has scored in every match this season but concede too many. They don't like going to Old Trafford so this looks ominous.
Prediction: Manchester Utd to win at $1.40.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v NEWCASTLE
History: Newcastle has won three of the four meetings since Forest's promotion, including both at the City Ground.
Overview: It's the fairytale story of the season. Forest easily accounted for West Ham at the City Ground last weekend to climb to third on the ladder, bringing back memories of Clough's miracle. Chris Wood, a centre forward right out of the old school, is scoring for fun. But the success is based on defence, with just seven goals finding the back of their net in ten games. It's got to be doubtful that this level of success is sustainable, but there has been no fluke to the results to date.
Newcastle followed Carabao Cup success over Chelsea with a determined win at home to Arsenal last weekend. Those three points ended a wretched run for the Magpies who sit at the bottom end of a clutch of teams within four points of each other – third down to 11th. Away from home, Newcastle continues to struggle; something they need to correct if a top six finish is to be achieved.
Prediction: Draw at $3.30.
TOTTENHAM v IPSWICH
History: No meetings since January 2002.
Overview: The highs and lows of Tottenham Hotspur continued last weekend when they came from 1-0 down at half time to smash Villa 4-1 in an emphatic display. That came off a Cup win over Man City which makes their loss at Palace two weeks ago so hard to fathom. Home is becoming a fortress, with six straight wins there in all competitions by an aggregate of 17-4.
Ipswich looked to have their maiden win in the bag only to be denied in the 96th minute by Leicester last weekend. It keeps them clear of the foot of the table but in this era of three-point wins, draws aren't much good. They leak a lot of goals away from Portman Road so this might be ugly if the best version of Spurs shows up.
Prediction: Tottenham to win at $1.25.
CHELSEA v ARSENAL
History: Arsenal has dominated in the past four seasons, winning six and drawing one of the eight encounters.
Overview: Two sides who aren't going quite as well as they were a few weeks back. Chelsea will rue missed opportunities when they came away with a point from Old Trafford last weekend. That made it just five points from a possible 12 in the league since the end of September. On the positive side, they haven't lost at Stamford Bridge since opening day against Man City.
Arsenal's season is already on tenterhooks, with just a draw from their last three games. A midweek loss in Milan against Inter added to Arteta's awful month or so. Away from the Emirates, the only goals they have scored in their last four matches have come in the Carabao Cup against Preston North End. Lose this and a 24/25 Premiership win looks up in smoke.
Prediction: Draw at $3.40.
SUGGESTED WAGERS
West Ham to win: 2 units at $2.20.
Wolves to win: 4 units at $2.00.
