3 minute read
A big query on the colts division going into the 2014 Golden Slipper was magnified when seven fillies crossed the line before the first colt.
This in itself would be of no great concern if the fillies on the day were an outstanding group but Ghibellines was the only colt to run up to a mark of 100 on the day, an alarming number against a ten-year average of 6.4.
Mossfun did put up a smart performance to turn the tables on the previously unbeaten Earthquake but at 119 she is the first winner to come out of the Golden Slipper with a rating below 120 since Polar Success in 2003.
The 2003 Slipper was also dominated by the fillies with the first six across the line of the fairer sex.
Since that time there has been, on average, 4.8 juveniles per crop finish the season rated 120 or higher.
That tally looks beyond the current group that, after thorough back-handicapping, and a recalibration of the crop in the wake of the the race that typically defines the juvenile pecking order, boasts no horses above the 120-barrier.
Polar Success’ Slipper win was bettered later in the season by both Untouchable and Hasna who were able to put up form ahead of 120 in the weeks that followed.
Such an opportunity is still there for this crop but with the top three to this point, Mossfun, Earthquake and Rubick, all on ice it’s hard to see where such a performance will come from.
In addition, several of the juveniles pressing towards that 119 Timeform figure are also off to the paddock, making the likelihood of 120+ performance even more remote.
Rubick is currently the top Timeform rated colt in the land, with his debut romp at Randwick making him the equal of both Mossfun and Earthquake at 119+.
His original provisional 122+ figure has been marked down slightly in the latest crop re-evaluation.
Rubick failed to progress in two runs that followed his debut but the collateral form around the debut race did no harm to his reputation and Timeform rating, although now assessed slightly below the original mark.
Lines through stakes-performed Twirl and Skyline winner Valentia, who were left floundering 16 and 30 pounds behind Rubick, bolstered the form and hence his master figure of 119 retains a Timeform + going into his three-year-old year.
It is also worth recounting his outstanding win in the G3 Blue Diamond Prelude over 1100m at Caulfield.
Although running below his master figure, the way in which it was executed, with blistering early speed coupled with good dash of courage in the run home, sees the win remain one of the best juvenile performances of the season so far.
Rubick again draws comparison with the class of 2003, in particular Exceed And Excel who finished his two-year-old season rated 119 having failed to produce his best in his “Grand Final”.
Rubick still managed to finish fourth in the Blue Diamond Stakes despite being well below his peak form, his performance reminiscent of Exceed And Excel's in the 2003 Golden Slipper.
Exceed And Excel went on to be the champion of his generation at three with the highlight of his five wins his G1 Newmarket Handicap success which returned a Timeform rating of 126.
A similar figure is perhaps not beyond Rubick, or one of the two smart fillies, next season but if this crop is to redeem itself then it is going to need depth.
Depth came about behind Exceed And Excel in the form of late-bloomers such as Reset, Starcraft, Elvstroem and Spark Of Life.
The 2013/14 juvenile crop needs some late-bloomers of its own if it is to redeem itself, with the trio tied at the top currently responsible for 10 of the best 25 individual performances this season.
