3 minute read
Newmarket played host to the first classics of the seasons this weekend, but it wasn't just at HQ that the Timeform handicappers were getting excited. Where else? Read David Johnson's guide to find out...
There can't be many classic winners that are unbeaten in three outings, including two Group 1s, and it's still their potential rather than achievement on which they are judged. But that is exactly the case with Camelot who earned a Timeform rating of 123p for his success in the 2000 Guineas. In terms of the Epsom Derby, it leaves Camelot 6 lb clear at present, and even with the major trials still to come, it's hard to envisage a stronger contender emerging.
It wasn't a vintage Guineas, a rating of 123 the lowest awarded to the winner of the race since Footstepsinthesand ran to 120 in 2005, but the expectation is that it will prove a platform on which Camelot will build on at middle distances, and even mentions of the Triple Crown are not too fanciful at this stage. Five-year standards for the race would point to rating the race a little higher, but with horses like Coup de Ville (106 to 113) and Ptolemaic (97 to 106) seeming to improve, the overall form, which generated a winning timefigure of 108, doesn't look particularly strong.
French Fifteen upheld the Prix Djebel form and is now rated 122, whilst Hermival, although running to a bare rating of 116 now has a master rating of 118, the Timeform race reporter of the opinion he would have finished closer had he raced with the first two in the closing stages. Trumpet Major failed to run to quite the same level as in the Craven, and that form has been downgraded from 121 to 118.
Whilst the 2000 Guineas was relatively straightforward to assess, the 1000 Guineas proved a little trickier. Wide-margin winners can sometimes be problematic, all the more so when it suggests a huge amount of improvement for a filly already with thirteen runs behind her.
Historical standards for the 1000 Guineas give a range of 126-131 for Homecoming Queen, and unlike the 2000 Guineas, there is nothing holding the race down, but the feeling is that Homecoming Queen was seen to her absolute maximum. She relished the conditions, wasn't hassled in front, and had a fitness edge over most of her rivals. She was awarded a rating of 124, the highest since Cape Verdi's 126 in 1998. Her overall time was 2.01 seconds faster than Camelot the previous day, and her timefigure of 120 does provide substance to the form.
The bare form of the 1000 Guineas actually has all of the horses in behind Homecoming Queen running below their previous master rating, but it would be wrong to disregard everything that happened in behind the wide-margin winner.
Taking the beaten horses almost as a separate field to the winner, it's clear that Starscope and The Fugue need to be rated higher than the majority of the field, and their master ratings have been increased to 110 and 105p respectively. This method of handicapping - according to finishing position, rather than purely on margins beaten - is termed "positional handicapping" and has been in use for a long time at Timeform. Its purpose is to reflect the "correct" order in the horses' master ratings if they were to meet again under similar conditions.
Away from the classics, there were a number of other smart performances recorded at Newmarket. Al Kazeem progressed again to earn a mark of 125 for winning what looked a strong Jockey Club Stakes. Noble Mission put himself in line for another step up in class, running to 105+ to win the ten-furlong listed race, and given he came from behind in race run at an uneven pace, has been rated 110p. Debutant Michelangelo, beaten just three quarters of a length has been given a rating of 103P.
The fillies equivalent of that race, the Pretty Polly, run the following day, went to Kailani, and though she's not currently entered in the Oaks, she surely wouldn't look out of place in such company in similar conditions, running to 111p for beating Hazel Lavery by seven lengths.
Frederick Engels was a winner at Royal Ascot last year for David Brown and Pearl Bloodstock and they could have another two-year-old bound for that meeting after New Pearl looked potentially one of the best juveniles seen out yet with his four-and-a-half length win in the five-furlong maiden at Newmarket on Sunday, earning a rating of 97P.
Another horse that could well have Royal Ascot on the agenda is Godolphin's Queen Anne and Prince of Wales's entry Farhh who maintained his unbeaten record when routing his field in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. That win puts down a strong early marker for the best performance in a handicap in Britain for the year, and his 122p rating suggests he's well up to making an impact in pattern company now.
