3 minute read

As alluded to in Ratings Update yesterday, now is one of the best times of year to be a jumps fan

Saturday sees the first big-name handicap of the winter, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, which is merely the highlight of what promises to be an exhilarating three days of action from the revamped Cheltenham.

It may well be all change with regard to the grandstands at Cheltenham, but the list of entries for the Paddy Power has a very familiar feel to it, with the name Pipe once again featuring heavily in the entries and pre-race discussions. Martin Pipe virtually monopolised this race, winning it eight times in total and taking five out of the first six renewals this century. Since taking over the licence, son David has managed to win the race just the once, with Great Endeavour in 2011, but his entries for the race this year – two of which are in the first four in the betting – give him a strong chance of recording a second win for himself and continue his yard’s remarkable record in the race.

Current joint-favourite for the race this year is Pipe’s Kings Palace, who made an exciting start to his career over fences when winning three times before the Festival. His two wins at Cheltenham, both convincing at the expense of Sausalito Sunrise, marked Kings Palace up as a potentially top-class chaser. When it came to March, however, Kings Palace was below form in the RSA Chase, only managing sixth after doing too much in front. It had been a similar story in the previous year’s Albert Bartlett, in which Kings Palace again failed to sustain his effort at the head of a bigger field. That’s the concern again on Saturday, as Kings Palace is habitually ridden to dominate and has yet to manage it in a big field, let alone one as competitive as in your average Paddy Power.

We have no such concerns about Pipe’s other leading contender Monetaire. His best effort last season came when he was second in the Festival Plate over much the same C&D, and he was coping fine with the Topham next time before he was hampered and unseated at the Canal Turn. Before that he’d been third at this meeting and beat Solar Impulse at Newbury, so we’re not worried about a lack of experience and, given he’s just 3 lb higher than in March and still very much unexposed, we’d nominate Monetaire as the likelier of Pipe’s leading two to bring another Paddy Power Gold Cup back to Somerset. Considering he’s significantly bigger than King’s Palace, that makes him hard to resist as a bet.

We could of course tip up half a dozen others and feel confident of a big run. Chief among those would probably be Dr Richard Newland’s Boondooma. His profile over fences so far, although only four runs strong, is typically Newland in its relentless progress. He pushed Melodic Rendezvous close on his second start and then handed a drubbing to Ifandwhybutnot at Haydock just before Christmas. His first run of 2015 wasn’t until the Showcase meeting here last month, which only makes Boondooma’s performance all the more remarkable. Despite racing with a strong pace for much of the two-mile trip, Boondooma kept on impressively to beat Workbench by a ready three lengths. The progressive Boondooma commands plenty of respect, but there is lingering scepticism over whether he can do the same as he did last month to a Paddy Power field, over a longer trip (he’s yet to see out two and a half miles at a course as stiff as Cheltenham).

One of those likely to be ridden with slightly more restraint is Irish Cavalier, who showed himself to be better than ever with a pleasing reappearance at Newton Abbot last month. His progressive novice campaign last season makes him tailor-made for this sort of handicap, a point he rammed home with his win in the novice handicap chase at the Festival, which often has a bearing on the subsequent autumn’s Paddy Power. Everything looks in place for a big performance once again from Irish Cavalier, who you fancy has been fine-tuned for this race.

There isn’t a standout candidate in this year’s Paddy Power, the sort of horse the public really get behind to the exclusion of all others. David Pipe had the most obvious recent example of the phenomena, with 7/4 favourite Grands Crus in 2012, and if there’s a similar type in this year’s race it’s either his Kings Palace or Monetaire. You can and should protect against a public gamble by getting betting now, and we recommend you do so with Monetaire, who mightn’t have the same long-term potential as Kings Palace but is easily the more likely in our eyes to land a big handicap prize like the Paddy Power.

Recommendation:

Back Monetaire in the Paddy Power Gold Cup