3 minute read

Unlike the Derby, which looks as open a renewal as we have seen in recent years, Friday’s Oaks – the third British classic of the season – is unsurprisingly one-sided when it comes to the ante-post betting market.

The filly dominating the market is Rhododendron, who would have finished much closer to Winter in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket at the beginning of May had she had a clearer run. Winter followed up in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh on Sunday, prompting Rhododendron to tighter even further at the top of the Oaks market. Barring her price there are few obvious reasons to take her on – she has the best form in the race courtesy of her Guineas second, while both her run-style and pedigree (full-sister Just Gorgeous won over a mile and a half) indicate that the extra half a mile in the Oaks will serve her well.

Despite her strong credentials, Rhododendron’s price – around even-money at the time of writing – opens the race up nicely from an each-way perspective, and the Oaks does look a fairly attractive each-way betting prospect.

Behind the favourite on Timeform ratings is Sobetsu, who is also a Group 1 winner. Her three-length win in the Prix Saint-Alary at Deauville last time was impressive, and she’d be well worth a chance in a classic. Both of her wins (on good and good to soft ground) have come before disappointments on quicker surfaces, however, and connections stressed that her participation at Epsom would be ground dependant. The going at Epsom is currently good to soft with rain forecast for later in the week, however, and Sobetsu surely won’t be a double-figure price if the ground stays similar and she lines up. Sobetsu had Coronet – four points shorter in the betting – four and three quarter lengths back in third at Deauville, though the latter wasn’t as well positioned and finished off her race in the manner of one who will absolutely relish the step up to a mile and a half. Coronet’s Zetland Stakes win at Newmarket in October last season has worked out well (Cunco in second and Permian in third) and she is a player.

John Gosden is also set to be represented by Enable, who beat Aiden O’Brien’s Alluringly (who is also an improving filly) in the Cheshire Oaks at Chester last time. Enable was value for more than the winning margin (eased final strides) and will have no problem at all with the full 12 furlongs in the Oaks, though there are arguably more attractively priced runners in this field.

One of those is fellow Juddmonte representative Natavia, who is only 1 lb behind Enable on Timeform ratings (both have a ‘p’) yet is around four times the price in the betting. Natavia also won a listed Oaks trial in impressive fashion, this time at Newbury over a mile and a quarter, and with the extra two furlongs at Epsom not looking an issue based on her pedigree, on form she should be much closer in the betting to Enable. Connections would also prefer some cut in the ground for her (Newbury win came on soft), so the rain that fell at Epsom on Sunday night is a positive.

Horseplay was another trial winner, and she too looks a serious Oaks candidate. She is around the same price of Natavia, and would also make some each-way appeal, though her listed win at Newmarket doesn’t appeal as strong a piece of form as the race won by Natavia, and she has even more to find on ratings with Rhododendron.

Recommendation:

Back Natavia each-way at 12/1 for the Oaks

Read Adam Houghton's preview of Saturday's Epsom Derby