Whistlejacket's picks and the reasons both serious and frivolous for choosing them.
Firstly our sire used to say back the top weight in races longer than a mile. Our dam would go for saddle cloth no. 13. And this year's edition is a very open race from a betting point of view – 6/1 the field on TAB fixed odds. We can remember sinking our pocket money on Gold and Black and thinking 3/1 was a good price! So far there are four horses under 10/1.
Sharing the top of the fixed odds market are Vauban and Buckeroo. We prefer Vauban for several reasons. He's a repeat offender and has done well in the meantime and his trainer says that he thinks he'll do much better this year. Wiliam Buick is coming out to ride him and he's one of England/Ireland's top hoops. He has no trouble with the trip and he's drawn the magic barrier of 11. And he's top weight which our sire would like.
On the other hand Buckeroo had everything going for him until he drew barrier 21. He hasn't run the trip before and from that gate he will either have to storm out and go forward or settle back and run extra metres going round horses, neither of which is the best scenario. He has got a very fast finish and if he is any position to strike coming round the home turn and has enough gas left in the tank he's got the nice long Flemington straight to show it. With that in mind we will keep him in the multiples but don't have the confidence to back him outright.
Onesmoothoperator comes from the Northern England stables of Brian Ellison and as we know Yorkshiremen don't part with their brass unless they feel it will be worth their while. The horse smashed them in the Geelong Cup and has obviously enjoyed his morning swims in the sea (despite nearly falling in one time) and life in general. He will be partnered again by Craig Williams who already has a Melbourne Cup win on his CV and they have saddle cloth no. 13 so our dam would certainly be a supporter.
Okita Soushi started off in Ireland with a Japanese owner hence the name but he's been in Australia for a while now and is trained here by Ciaron Maher who has booked Jamie Kah for the ride. He too ran in this race last year finishing 11th. He won his last outing which was the Moonee Valley Gold Cup so is striking form at the right time. He's got saddle cloth no. 12 and comes from gate 10, both very favourable and we reckon 15/1 is value.
Land Legend seems to have been overlooked by many of the commentators possible because he will come from Gate 18, which until Verry Eleegant's win was the only gate that hadn't produced a winner. He's got Zac Purton coming to ride him and he ran well in the Caulfield Cup finishing third, after defeating Zardozi in a very tight finish in the Metropolitan but it showed his will to win. 11/1 looks about right. He's one of several Chris Waller entrants but the one we like the best.
Absurde is Vauban's stablemate and ran 7th in this race last year. He too has had a good year and if he wins Kerrin McEvoy will equal the most winning jockeys. But his stablemate has the better form which is not to say that he is a slouch – Willie Mullins is very careful in selecting his runners for this race, although he has yet to win it. 10/1 could be a bit on the short side. Time will tell. He's drawn well in 7 and should be up there.
Sea King is another raider from the UK where he is trained by Harry Eustace and has solid form over distance races at the handicap level. He too seems to be enjoying life in Australia and won the Bendigo Cup in almost the same time as Onesmoothoperator won the Geelong Cup. Hollie Doyle is coming out to ride so there will be four women jockeys riding in the Cup this year. Barrier 1 is not always the most popular as unless the horse makes a great start you run the risk of being boxed in. 13/1 looks reasonable.
And never ignore the Japanese. They only have one runner this year – Warp Speed. He's by Drefong out of a Deep Impact mare and has no trouble with the trip. He's got a good draw in gate 3 and will have a "lucky" saddle cloth in No. 4 and has got equal top weight so the handicapper must have seen something. His jockey will need to walk the course carefully to work out where he wants to be at certain stages of the race. 30/1 could be added to multiples.
In this year's edition there no sires of the runners have sired a Cup winner although they have many winners elsewhere. Galileo has 3 runners, Fastnet Rock 2, Almazour 4, Sea The Stars 2 and Roaring Lion 2. Bragging rights await.
We wish all horses and jockeys a safe trip around the Flemington track. The weather looks perfect and the crowd will be huge.
